据路透社4月21日报道，有气候学家认为，受气候变化和厄尔尼诺现象回归的影响，全球平均气温可能在2023年或2024年创新高。
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The world could breach a new average temperature record in 2023 or 2024, fuelled by climate change and the anticipated return of the El Nino weather phenomenon, climate scientists say.
路透社：随着厄尔尼诺现象的回归，2023年世界可能面临创纪录的高温
路透社报道称，气候模型表明，在拉尼娜现象（La Nina，通常会略微降低全球气温）在太平洋地区持续约3年后，在今年晚些时候，世界将重新经历使温度更高的厄尔尼诺现象（El Nino）。
Climate models suggest that after three years of the La Nina weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean, which generally lowers global temperatures slightly, the world will experience a return to El Nino, the warmer counterpart, later this year.
据新华社报道，拉尼娜和厄尔尼诺现象一般每2至7年发生一次，中间有中性年。厄尔尼诺是太平洋赤道中东部海水温度异常升高引起的一种气候现象，拉尼娜则与之相反，指太平洋该区域海水温度连续一段时间低于正常年份。世界气象组织说，当前拉尼娜现象始于2020年9月前后，目前正进入尾声，但由于它持续时间较长，其潜在影响还会持续一段时间。
欧盟哥白尼气候变化服务局（Copernicus Climate Change Service）主要负责人卡洛·布翁滕波说：“厄尔尼诺通常与全球范围内的创纪录温度有关。这种情况是否会在2023年或2024年发生还不得而知，但我认为发生的可能性更大。”
"El Nino is normally associated with record breaking temperatures at the global level. Whether this will happen in 2023 or 2024 is not yet known, but it is, I think, more likely than not," said Carlo Buontempo, director of the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service.
布翁滕波说，气候模型表明，北半球今年夏末将恢复厄尔尼诺天气条件，且有可能在今年年底发展成强厄尔尼诺现象。
Climate models suggest a return to El Nino conditions in the late boreal summer, and the possibility of a strong El Nino developing towards the end of the year, Buontempo said.
世界气象组织数据显示，在强厄尔尼诺现象和气候变化的双重作用下，2016年是有记录以来最热的一年。2015年至2022年是全球有记录以来最暖的8年。这反映了由温室气体排放（greenhouse gas emissions）而引起的长期变暖趋势。
The world's hottest year on record so far was 2016, coinciding with a strong El Nino - although climate change has fuelled extreme temperatures even in years without the phenomenon.
The last eight years were the world's eight hottest on record - reflecting the longer-term warming trend driven by greenhouse gas emissions.
英国帝国理工学院格兰瑟姆气候变化与环境研究所的高级讲师弗雷德里克·奥托表示，厄尔尼诺现象引发的高温可能使不少国家已经经历的气候变化影响恶化，包括极端热浪（severe heatwaves）、干旱（drought）和野火（wildfires）频发。
Friederike Otto, senior lecturer at Imperial College London's Grantham Institute, said El Nino-fuelled temperatures could worsen the climate change impacts countries are already experiencing - including severe heatwaves, drought and wildfires.
“如果厄尔尼诺现象真的发展起来，考虑到世界因人类继续燃烧化石燃料而持续变暖，2023年很有可能比2016年更热。”奥托说。
"If El Niño does develop, there is a good chance 2023 will be even hotter than 2016 – considering the world has continued to warm as humans continue to burn fossil fuels," Otto said.
据联合国资料介绍，为应对气候变化，197个国家于2015年在巴黎召开的缔约方会议第二十一届会议上通过了《巴黎协定》（the Paris Agreement），会上规定的目标是将本世纪全球气温升幅限制在2摄氏度以内，同时努力争取将气温升幅进一步限制在1.5摄氏度以内。
对于这个“1.5摄氏度目标”，目前来看情况不容乐观。
上周四，欧盟哥白尼气候变化服务局发布了一份报告，评估了去年全球经历的极端气候，并指出2022年是有记录以来第五热的一年。
EU Copernicus scientists published a report last Thursday assessing the climate extremes the world experienced last year, its fifth-warmest year on record.
2022年，全球多地经历极端气候——欧洲经历了有记录以来最热的夏天；在巴基斯坦，洪水导致1700人死亡，基础设施遭到破坏；乌干达的干旱破坏了农作物；野火肆虐地中海国家。
The changing climate fuelled weather extremes across the planet in 2022. Europe suffered its hottest summer on record, while in Pakistan floods killed 1,700 people and wrecked infrastructure, drought ravaged crops in Uganda and wildfires ripped through Mediterranean countries.
报告还显示，2022年，全球平均气温比起人类社会普遍进入工业化之前，已经上升了1.1-1.2℃。
The world's average global temperature is now 1.1C to 1.2C higher than in pre-industrial times.
而在今年2月，南极海冰水平创下历史新低。
And in February this year, Antarctic sea ice levels hit a record low.
欧盟哥白尼气候变化服务局副主任萨曼莎·伯吉斯表示，“我们已经在经历全球变暖带来的灾难性后果。”她呼吁采取紧急行动，减少二氧化碳排放，适应不断变化的气候。
"We are already experiencing the devastating consequences of our warming world," said C3S deputy director Samantha Burgess, who called for urgent action to cut CO2 emissions and adapt to the changing climate.
只有各国将排放量减少到“净零（net zero）”，即排放到大气中的温室气体量不超过清除的温室气体量，全球气温才会停止上升。
Global temperatures will only stop rising if countries reduce their emissions to "net zero" - meaning they release no more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than they remove.
然而，尽管世界上大多数主要排放国承诺最终将其净排放量削减至零，但全球二氧化碳排放量仍在继续上升。
Despite most of the world's major emitters pledging to eventually slash their net emissions to zero, global CO2 emissions continue to rise.
据路透社，在今年的第28届联合国气候变化大会上，各国将正式评估他们在实现《巴黎协定》“1.5摄氏度目标”方面的进展，以及实现这一目标所需的更快的减排速度。
At this year's COP28 climate conference, countries will formally assess their progress towards the Paris Agreement's 1.5C goal - and the far faster emissions cuts needed to meet it.
综合来源：路透社，新华社，CNBC
