近日，美国著名国际关系学者、芝加哥大学政治学系教授约翰·米尔斯海默（John J. Mearsheimer）在2015年分析乌克兰局势的一场公开课在网上热传。他在公开课上表示，美国始终想方设法拉拢乌克兰进入西方阵营，俄罗斯对此做出回应，这令人意外吗?
米尔斯海默在2014年发表于美国《外交》杂志上的文章《为何乌克兰危机错在西方：激怒普京的自由主义错觉》（原标题：Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault——The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin）中，对俄乌局势有过详细分析。其中他指出：
“美国及其欧洲盟国才是乌克兰危机的主要责任方。危机根源是北约东扩。东扩背后的宏大战略是，要把乌克兰从俄罗斯防卫圈中解脱出来，融入西方怀抱。”
“The United States and its European allies share most of the responsibility for the Ukraine crisis. The taproot of the trouble is NATO enlargement, the central element of a larger strategy to move Ukraine out of Russia’s orbit and integrate it into the West.”
在米尔斯海默看来，普京的举措不难理解：
“拿破仑时期的法国、德意志帝国和纳粹德国都曾越过乌克兰的广袤平原侵略俄罗斯，因此，这是俄罗斯战略上重要的缓冲地带。没有一个俄罗斯领导人会容许乌克兰与其宿敌结盟。当西方扶植乌克兰建立一个决心加入西方阵营的新政府时，任何俄罗斯领导人都不会坐视不管。”
“A huge expanse of flat land that Napoleonic France, imperial Germany, and Nazi Germany all crossed to strike at Russia itself, Ukraine serves as a buffer state of enormous strategic importance to Russia. No Russian leader would tolerate a military alliance that was Moscow’s mortal enemy until recently moving into Ukraine. Nor would any Russian leader stand idly by while the West helped install a government there that was determined to integrate Ukraine into the West.”
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米尔斯海默表示，这是典型的地缘政治（geopolitics）：“大国对于边境线上的潜在威胁十分敏感。毕竟，美国也不会容忍其他大国在西半球部署军队，更不要说周边地区。”
“Great powers are always sensitive to potential threats near their home territory. After all, the United States does not tolerate distant great powers deploying military forces anywhere in the Western Hemisphere, much less on its borders.”
米尔斯海默认为，“美国和欧洲的精英之所以对时局视而不见，完全是因为他们持有错误的国际政治观念。他们以为21世纪不需要现实主义，以为欧洲凭着法治、经济互联和民主等自由主义理念便可纵横天下。”
“Elites in the United States and Europe have been blindsided by events only because they subscribe to a flawed view of international politics. They tend to believe that the logic of realism holds little relevance in the twenty first century and that Europe can be kept whole and free on the basis of such liberal principles as the rule of law, economic interdependence, and democracy.”
公开课中，米尔斯海默以美国冷战时期奉行的门罗主义（Monroe Doctrine），替美国“换位思考”了一把：
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“门罗主义基本上是说，西半球是我们的后花园，任何远邦都不允许在西半球部署军事力量。”
“The Monroe Doctrine basically says that the Western hemisphere is our backyard, and nobody from a distant region is allowed to move military forces into the western hemisphere.”
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米尔斯海默表示，所以如果有哪个世界大国在美国边境陈兵，美国会重拾起门罗主义进行对抗。
因此，米尔斯海默认为，“美国把乌克兰纳入西方的势力范围会惹恼俄罗斯，这完全不该让人感到意外。”
“So, nobody should be surprised that the Russians were apoplectic about the idea of us putting Ukraine on the western side of the ledger.”
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在文章《为何乌克兰危机错在西方》中，米尔斯海默大胆预言，“美国及其欧洲盟友在乌克兰问题上面临选择。他们可以继续执行现在的政策，加剧与俄罗斯的冲突，让乌克兰状况进一步恶化——所有人都将是输家。”
“The United States and its European allies now face a choice on Ukraine. They can continue their current policy, which will exacerbate hostilities with Russia and devastate Ukraine in the process — a scenario in which everyone would come out a loser.”
“或者，他们可以改变方向，共同建立经济繁荣、政治中立的乌克兰，不针对俄罗斯，让西方与莫斯科修复关系。若能实现，所有人都将是赢家。”
“Or they can switch gears and work to create a prosperous but neutral Ukraine, one that does not threaten Russia and allows the West to repair its relations with Moscow. With that approach, all sides would win.”
来源：《外交》杂志，观察者网，中国日报双语新闻，The University of Chicago
